Times for solar in the EU have changed – and unfortunately not for the better. In 2025, the EU solar market contracted for the first time in a decade.

Last year, we warned policymakers with a yellow card that Europe’s solar momentum would fade without decisive action. Reality has now confirmed those concerns, as already indicated in our mid-year market assessment. With 65.1 GW installed in 2025, EU solar deployment fell by 0.7%.

One might argue that this contraction is merely a correction after the extraordinary solar heydays of the energy crisis, when annual growth reached unprecedented double-digit levels. Indeed, the EU met its 320 GWAC (400 GWDC) milestone for 2025. Solar also became the largest electricity source in June for the first time ever, and its annual share in EU power supply rose to over 13%, roughly doubling within just a few years. These achievements certainly deserve recognition.

But the market turning negative reflects much more than a mere correction. The rooftop segment has contracted sharply, despite consumers still facing high retail gas and electricity prices, as support schemes were gradually phased out. Utility-scale installations continued to grow strongly, surpassing half of all new capacity in 2025, yet this was not sufficient to compensate for the weakening of the residential market. And conditions for large-scale solar are also becoming increasingly challenging. Long-anticipated structural bottlenecks have intensified: grid congestion, curtailment, falling capture prices, stagnating electrification, and unresolved flexibility and storage needs. Even permitting remains a substantial barrier in many Member States.

We anticipate two further years of market decline. For 2030, the Medium Scenario has been revised down by 12% in just twelve months, removing nearly 100 GW from Europe’s expected solar fleet – more than 1.5 times the total annual installations of 2024

With regulatory implementation and adjustments still coming too slowly and at insufficient scale, we have significantly revised our market outlook. The result is a much dimmer trajectory for the EU solar sector than expected only a year ago. We anticipate two further years of market decline. For 2030, the Medium Scenario has been revised down by 12% in just twelve months, removing nearly 100 GW from Europe’s expected solar fleet – more than 1.5 times the total annual installations of 2024. Under current trends, the EU is now projected to reach only 718 GW of installed solar by 2030, falling short of the 750 GW target. Our Low Scenario foresees only 664 GW, below the already modest 701 GW indicated in Member States’ National Energy and Climate Plans.

Flexibility is the key to further success. Without rapid deployment of battery storage, demand response, grid digitalisation and expansion, solar’s value will continue to be constrained just at a time that EU businesses and citizens are craving for affordable electricity. Negative prices and curtailment are eroding business cases, and investor confidence is weakening at a moment when Europe needs more clean energy investment for its energy security and competitiveness.

Under current trends, the EU is now projected to reach only 718 GW of installed solar by 2030, falling short of the 750 GW target

This year’s outlook delivers a clear wake-up call to policymakers: solar is too important to fail. Action is needed now. The EU urgently needs a decisive push on flexibility with a dedicated EU Flexibility Strategy that unlocks the enormous potential of battery storage and demand-side flexibility. Without this, Europe will not only miss its 2030 solar targets. If solar – the EU’s largest and fastest-growing clean technology – fails to pick up in the next years, the EU will certainly miss its 2030 renewables target of 42.5%.

This year’s outlook delivers a clear wake-up call to policymakers: solar is too important to fail. Action is needed now

It is time to course-correct. With decisive and coordinated action, Europe can still reverse the current negative trend, as solar and battery storage are incredibly swift to deploy. SolarPower Europe stands ready to work with policymakers to rebuild momentum and deliver the solar-powered energy system needed for security, competitiveness, and climate objectives.

EU Solar Market Outlook 2025-2030

11 December 2025