While European solar deployment has continued at a notable scale, market developments in the first half of the year varied significantly across countries. Several large markets maintained significant installation volumes, whereas others showed clear signs of deceleration as residential demand weakened and policy frameworks evolved.

Not all EU Member States publish monthly installation statistics; the 14 countries for which H1 2026 data was available at our editorial deadline of August 21 accounted for approximately 85% of last year’s market. As such, the available data provide a good indication of overall EU market trends despite the absence of complete coverage. However, data might still change, likely upwards once regulators publish or update their numbers.

Here are summaries on the latest developments in key European solar markets:
Germany, Europe’s largest solar market, recorded a first half of 2026 broadly in line with 2025. According to preliminary numbers from the regulator, the country installed around 7.5 GW of new solar capacity in H1 2026, only marginally below the 7.8 GW recorded in H1 2025.

The relatively stable overall H1 2026 market masks significant differences between segments. Utility-scale solar continued to grow, while residential and particularly C&I rooftop installations remained below previous-year levels.

Residential demand weakened significantly in the first quarter before recovering in the second. A similar development was seen in balcony solar, which declined in Q1 before registrations also picked up in the second quarter.

The rebound in household solar appears to have been supported largely by temporary factors. Germany has some of the highest household electricity prices in the EU, making consumers particularly sensitive to renewed volatility in energy markets. The latest fossil fuel crisis has brought energy costs and energy security back into focus, strengthening interest in greater energy resilience. Combined with a mature solar market and well-developed sales and installation infrastructure, such price signals can translate relatively quickly into increased residential PV demand, as households seek to reduce both their energy bills and their exposure to future price volatility. In this context, solar is once again demonstrating its value to consumers as an energy security solution.

At the same time, planned changes to the Renewable Energy Act (EEG), expected to take effect in 2027, are creating an additional pull-forward effect. The proposed revision would end fixed feed-in tariff payments for new residential PV systems, while increasing the exposure of prosumers to market signals and grid costs, which would not only increase risk but also but make solar investment much less attractive. The prospect of these less favourable conditions is prompting some households and businesses to bring forward solar investment decisions.

While the current installation level looks acceptable, Germany would need to install around 20 GW per year to reach its 215 GW solar target by 2030, up from 128 GW at the end of July.

Spain, the second-largest market in Europe, continued to outperform expectations in 2026, supported by a strong utility-scale project pipeline despite increasingly challenging market conditions. Curtailment increased sharply, with nearly 400 hours recorded in Q1 – around eight times the previous-year level – while low solar capture rates and administrative barriers continue to weigh on new investment decisions. So far, however, these challenges have had a more limited impact on project commissioning than anticipated. At the same time, gross electricity demand has started to increase, rising 2.5% in the first seven months of the year, while renewed fossil-fuel price volatility and energy security concerns after last year’s black-out are strengthening the case for battery storage. Solar PV was Spain’s largest source of electricity generation from April through July, reaching a record monthly share of 29.4% in June.

These developments could provide additional support to the market in 2026, although they likely won’t fully compensate for deteriorating utility-scale project economics. The country installed around 5.9 GW in the first half of 2026, approximately 6% below the 6.3 GW deployed during the same period in 2025. However, the Spanish TSO revises installation data often substantially retrospectively. This effect was particularly significant for 2025. Initial data indicated additions of 9.2 GW, but updated registrations available in August 2026 show 13.4 GW, making Spain the largest contributor to the upward revision of total EU solar additions in 2025.

Most of the other leading EU solar markets, namely France, Italy, Poland, Romania and Greece, continued to grow in H1 2026 compared with H1 2025.

France, last year’s No 3, installed 3.5 GW in H1 2026, up from 3.3 GW a year earlier. This performance was somewhat unexpected given concerns that recent reductions in feed-in tariffs would weaken the large rooftop segment. France has significantly reduced support under its S21 framework, with further changes aimed at slowing deployment while encouraging greater self-consumption. But so far, the anticipated slowdown has not materialised. Mid-sized rooftop installations have remained particularly strong, accounting for around 44% of the newly added capacity connected to the Enedis network.

Nevertheless, caution remains for the second half of the year. Part of the current installation activity may reflect projects that secured more favourable conditions before the policy changes took effect, creating a time lag before the full impact of lower support becomes visible in installation data. Uncertainty over auction volumes and support mechanisms beyond summer 2026 is also reducing visibility for developers and investors. With further changes to the support framework intended to slow deployment, current installation levels therefore are not indicative of the future market trajectory.

Italy recorded renewed market growth in the first half of 2026, installing 3.1 GW, compared with 2.8 GW in H1 2025, and bringing cumulative installed capacity above 46 GW. Growth was driven by larger systems resulting from previous FER-1 auction rounds, which more than compensated for the continued decline in the residential segment. New residential capacity below 20 kW fell 23% year-on-year to 556 MW, while C&I installations between 20 kW and 1 MW increased 22% to 1.15 GW. Utility-scale additions above 1 MW also grew 22%, reaching 1.38 GW. As a result, C&I and utility-scale systems accounted for more than 80% of new capacity installed during the first half of the year. The shift towards larger systems became particularly visible in Q2, when 1.65 GW was connected, 15% more than in Q1, despite a decline in the number of newly connected systems. This points to a continued change in the composition of the Italian market, with larger C&I and utility-scale projects increasingly compensating for the normalisation of residential demand following the end of the Superbonus-driven boom.

Poland also performed well in 2026 so far, with almost 2.5 GW installed in H1 over 1.8 GW a year earlier, an increase of nearly 40%. Growth was largely driven by utility-scale projects, reflecting the continued shift of the Polish solar market from its traditionally prosumer-dominated structure towards larger installations. However, the rapid expansion of solar is increasingly exposing grid integration constraints. Curtailment of wind and solar generation reached 1.17 TWh in H1 2026, 45% more than a year earlier, with solar accounting for an increasing share of reductions during the spring and summer months. In June alone, 247 GWh of potential PV generation was curtailed, equivalent to over 14% of potential utility-scale solar output. Grid constraints and insufficient system flexibility are therefore emerging as an increasingly important limitation to further market growth, like in many other EU markets.

Among the countries reporting monthly installation data, the five largest markets – Germany, Spain, France, Italy and Poland – accounted for three quarters of newly installed capacity in the first half of 2026 (see Fig. 2).

EU Solar Market Update: 2026 Mid-Year Analysis

8 September 2026