New report: EU hits 2025 solar target but market contraction puts 2030 goal at risk

• EU installed 65.1 GW of new solar PV in 2025, a slight 0.7% contraction from the 65.6 GW installed in 2024. This marks the first year-on-year annual decline since 2016, with two more years of decline to follow. The market is set to return to 2025 values only by the end of the decade. 

• SolarPower Europe’s annual EU Solar Market Outlook reveals that, despite the market decline, the EU has reached its 2025 solar installation target of 400 GW, with a total fleet of 406 GW. 

• However, the EU solar target of 750 GW by 2030 is now slipping out of reach. In our most-likely scenario, SolarPower Europe projects that total EU solar will only reach 718 GW. 

• The slowdown is partially attributed to an ailing residential solar segment, which was responsible for 28% of newly installed EU capacity in 2023, but only 14% in 2025. 

• To achieve EU solar goals, policymakers must redefine energy security around renewable electrification, adopt a comprehensive energy system flexibility strategy, implement permitting procedures, and boost the rooftop solar market.

BRUSSELS, Belgium (Thursday 11th December 2025): The boom years of EU solar in the 2020s are over. With a 0.7% contraction from 65.6 GW installed in 2024, to 65.1 GW installed in 2025, this year marks the first year since 2016 where the EU has installed less solar than the year before.

The news of the decline is softened by the mid-decade milestone achieved. In the 2022 EU Solar Strategy, the EU set a goal of 400 GW installed in the bloc by 2025. Europe made it across this finish line, with an estimated 406 GW total solar installed across the EU by the end of the year. 

However, the slowdown is set to continue in 2026 and 2027, with growth returning in 2028 and 2029, and the EU finally returning to 2025 solar installation levels in 2030, with around 67 GW annual installations. In our most-likely scenario this means that the EU will fall short of its 750 GW solar target* for 2030. 

Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe (she/her) said, “The number may seem small, but the symbolism is big. We hit our 2025 solar target, but now for the first time, our 2030 target is falling out of reach. This interruption in solar market growth comes at a pivotal moment when acceleration is essential. Solar is now delivering for Europe; 13% of Europe’s electricity was solar powered in 2025. In June we provided the most power out of all other sources in the EU. It's critical that policymakers now implement robust frameworks for electrification, system flexibility, and energy storage to ensure solar leads Europe’s energy transition for the rest of this decade." 

The faltering market is attributed to a number of factors. An uncertain post-energy crisis environment has seen rooftop support schemes cut and a perceived softening of energy price pressure on households, drastically slowing the home solar market. Home rooftop solar has slowed significantly, having been responsible for 28% of EU installed capacity in 2023, but only 14% in 2025. 

For the first time, solar farms have made up over 50% of installed solar capacity, however, standalone solar faces increasing challenges on profitability, with increasing numbers of negative pricing hours eating away at revenues from solar electricity. 

While the picture across segments is changing, the ranking across EU countries stays relatively stable. Germany and Spain maintained their leads as the EU’s largest solar markets, driven by utility-scale projects as rooftop incentives slowed. In a slight-shake up, France overtook Italy to install the third-largest solar capacity in 2025, propelled by strong commercial and utility-scale expansion, while Italy’s rooftop sector contracted sharply following the phase-out of support schemes. 

Notably, Romania and Bulgaria entered the top 10 solar markets for the first time, with Romania boasting the fastest growth rate among its peers and Bulgaria’s surge tied to national recovery funding deadlines. On the other hand, the Netherlands’ ranking plunged to eighth place, mirroring its rooftop installations development. Looking across the top ten markets, half of them installed less solar in 2025 when compared to 2024; Italy, Poland, Greece, the Netherlands, and Portugal. 

Market conditions vary across the EU, but there are common barriers to overcome at EU-level. The report’s policy recommendations focus on redefining energy security around renewable sources, adopting a comprehensive strategy for flexibility, improving permitting procedures, boosting the rooftop solar market, and making solar supply chains more sustainable and resilient. 

Notes

*As per industry standard, SolarPower Europe expresses solar capacity in DC units, with a conversion factor of 1 GWAC = 1.25 GWDC. The European Commission expresses its capacity in AC units. The 1 = 1.25 factor was in use by the EU Joint Research Centre at time of publication of the EU Solar Standard which set out the 2025 and 2030 solar targets and until recently, and continues to be used by SolarPower Europe. 

© EnBW/Uli Deck